Mar 28

Investment valuation in new age internet companies is soaring. Facebook is valued at $50 billion, Twitter is valued at $10 billion and Groupon is chasing a $25 Billion IPO. For some jittery investors it feels like 1999, and they are saying this  is a new tech bubble.

Is it really a Tech Bubble?

It feels like one. All bubbles, stock market, real estate, commodities e.t.c happen during a period of high liquidity. The more money flows into an asset class the higher the price of that asset rises.

In the tech bubble of 90s, the bubble got in gear when investment funds started raising money to invest in then technology companies. Just like then, we see Goldman Sachs e.t.c raising billions to invest in the new age technology companies. Source NYtime article.

Tech Bubble Prediction

When it comes to prediction, history is a good guide. In any bubble there are a few winners and many losers. In the tech bubble of 90s we saw Amazon, Yahoo & Ebay emerge while a string on losers Webavan, Akamai, Jupiter networks and many other were trashed in the dustbin of history.

Today, the bet is on internet companies with a competitive advantage (business model that cannot easily be copied) like Facebook & Twitter to emerge victorious. On the other hand companies like Groupon & others whose model can be easily copied might not make it.

The challenge for investors is picking winners. The situation is best summarized in NYTimes article:-

As cash continues to pile up, the fear is that all this money cannot be put to work responsibly. With only a few perceived “winners,” some investors must be choosing losers or paying too much.

 

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Mar 16

Marc Faber is nick named ‘Doctor Doom’ He dishes out his market predictions and Forecast advice in his newsletter Gloom Boom & Doom Report.

Marc Faber is famous for predicting 1987 stock market crash. He advised his clients to get out of the stock market one week before the October 1987 crash.

Marc Faber Current Market Predictions & Forecast

  1. US is going to go bankrupt – His current tag-line is: ‘buy a $100 US bond and frame it to teach your children about inflation by watching the US bond value diminish to almost nothing over the next 20 years’
  2. As world population expand, food prices will continue to rise – Faber advises stock pickers to play on future food and water shortages by buying into companies with exposure to agriculture and water treatment technologies.
  3. Commodities – Gold and other metals are still long term buys.
  4. One of his most controversial forecast is imminent dirty war between US  and China over access to limited oil resources.

 

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Mar 14

An interesting item from 2011 Warren Buffet Shareholder letter was the forecast/ prediction that Coca-Cola could double its earning power in the next 10 years.

“In his 2011 shareholder letter,” he wrote, “we Berkshire Hathaway will almost certainly receive $376 million from Coke, up $24 million from last year. Within 10 years, I would expect that $376 million to double.”

That is an annual growth rate of between 6 – 7 %

If Coca-Cola doubles its earning power in the next 10 years as Warren Buffett predicts, then expect Coke stock to continue growing.

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Mar 09

The good times are around the corner! That was the message from Bank America CEO during the company’s first investor conference since 2007.

Bank Of America Profit Forecast & Prediction.

The chief executive of Bank of America has forecast and predicted pretax earnings of $35bn-$40bn a year once its businesses recovered from the financial crisis.

Why Bank of America stock may be set for Growth

Bank of America stock is currently trading at $14. Last year profits were around $11 billion. If the company delivers in it’s promise of growing profits 3 fold, then the stock could be set for a massive upswing.

The CEO, Brian Moynihan had a sweetener for shareholders, he said BofA aims to pay out 30 per cent of its annual earnings in dividends.

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Feb 27

In Warren Buffet 2011 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders, Warren Buffet made an interesting forecast on the direction of the  USA housing market.

The sage of Omaha suggested a housing recovery will likely begin within the next year, which would help the economy and several Berkshire subsidiaries, including ones that make carpets and bricks.

If Buffet is right then expect a pick up of mortgages and a rise in house prices going into 2011 & 2012.

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Feb 11

It is that time of the month when we look at Jim Cramer Stock Picks, Forecast and prediction for the month.

Jim Cramer February 2011 Recommendations – Stocks to Buy

  1. McDonald’s
  2. Coca-Cola
  3. Walt Disney
  4. 3M
  5. Clorox
  6. Kimberly-Clark
  7. Fedex
  8. Baidu.com
  9. AOL
  10. Motricity
  11. Chipotle Mexican Grill
  12. Chesapeake Energy
  13. Acme Packet
  14. Pepsico
  15. ARM Holdings
  16. Las Vegas Sands
  17. Bank of America
  18. Lululemon Athletica
  19. Hain Celestial Group
  20. Ford

Jim Cramers Stock to Sell

  1. Yahoo
  2. Cisco System

Word of caution before you act on these Cramer stock recommendations. Like Cramer says, Always do your own research as these are recommendations and I make no guarantees. No one cares about your money more than you do!

Follow Jim Cramer February stock pick on Jim Cramer’s Website

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Jan 31

Capita Registrars forecast that UK listed Companies will distribute to shareholders a whooping £63bn ($100bn) in dividends. The report was published in financial times.

The Top Five UK dividend stocks Were:-

  1. Royal Dutch Shell,
  2. Vodafone,
  3. HSBC,
  4. GlaxoSmithKline
  5. AstraZeneca

These are FTSE 100 stocks. Capita forecast UK equities could yield 4.2% in 2011.

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Jan 26

Verizon finaly gots it’s hands on the Iphone, the big question is how the Iphone will impact on Verizon Revenues, profits and ultimately Verizon stock.

When Verizon reported their 2010 financial results, Verizon communications Executives projected revenue growth of between 4% and 8% in 2011, well above 2010′s 1.9%. They also estimate 11 million IPhone activations this year.

11 million iPhone activations is not peanuts, but keep in mind Verizon is spending near $4 – 5 Billion to subsidise the Iphone. That means the Iphone subsidy will eat into the profits.

Verizon stock prediction / forecast 2011

Verizon shares are currently trading 16 times 2011 forecast and historically the shares EPS has been 15. The stock now seems to be as high as it can get for 2011.

Expect the stock upside to happen, starting in 2012, because that is when the company will start showing the benefits of investing in Iphone. When announcing 2010 results, the company said it expected earnings-per-share growth in 2012 to about double 2011 number.

To quote Verizon executives thoughts on the future of the company “really explode over the next several years.”

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Jan 04

Anyone who reads Daily Investment Tips regularly will know, one of our favorite stock picker is Jim Cramer. Every month we do analysis of his stock picks but this time, it is a new year and we bring you the best of Jim Cramer predictions & forecast for 2011.

Writing for the street website, Jim Cramer made the following bold predictions for 2011.

Jim Cramer Dow Prediction 2011

Jim Cramer expects the Dow to hit 13,365 next year– a 16% gain from current levels.

Jim Cramer Housing Prediction 2011

For some reason only known by Cramer he believes that housing will mount a comeback in 2011. He has picked Home Depot as one of his stock picks for 2011.

Jim Cramer Stock Predictions & Forecast 2011

Jim Cramer believes the following stocks will rise in 2011

  1. Alcoa
  2. Bank of America
  3. Boeing
  4. Caterpillar
  5. Chevron
  6. Coca-Cola
  7. Home Depot
  8. JPMorgan Chase
  9. 3M
  10. Verizon

Jim Cramer’s Stocks to under perform in 2011

  1. Kraft
  2. Cisco
  3. Merck
  4. Microsoft
  5. Pfizer
  6. Wal-mart.

To understand Cramer’s logic as to how he arrived to this conclusion make sure you read the detailed article at the street.

Before you act on this stock picks, remember Cramer’s warning, do you own home work, it is your money at stake.

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Jan 01

They say no one can see the future but that has never stopped men from predicting the future direction of stock market.

Investment prediction 2011

The following is a round up of some of the boldest investment predictions for 2011, from around the cyberspace.

S & P 500 Investment Prediction / Forecast 2011 From Barron

In the December 20th edition of Barron’s, leading strategists gave their forecasts for the S&P 500.

Those ranged from a low of 1,250 by Douglas Cliggott of Credit Suisse (CS) to a high of 1,450 by David Kostin of Goldman Sachs (GS).

Commodities Investment Prediction For 2011 From The Street

Commodities have been on a run for a long time now, some investors have started having the feeling this is another bubble. Peter Schiff, head of Euro Pacific Capital, speaking to the street.com, sees the bubble bursting sometime after the first quarter. He said commodity investors aren’t taking seriously enough the slowdown in China’s economy. He also said commodity prices are driven so much by speculation.

Home Price Forecast / Prediction 2011 From WSJ

The consensus estimates survey of 114 economists is that home prices will only rise by 0.8% next year, meaning that prices by the end of 2011 could be little different from where they were at the end of 2009. See WSJ Article

Dow Jones Industrial Average prediction 2011

2010 was a good year for DJIA. It soared 76 percent the past 21 months.  Will DJIA top 14000, I couldn’t find an answer to that.

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