Looking at Nikkei historical chart trend since 1990, the Nikkei has fallen in 12 years and risen in 7 years, with the bubble bursting — dropping by more than one-half — between 1990 and 1993. But the general trend has been down wards.
Let’s look at the Nikkei historical numbers for January in each of the years since 1984, when the Nikkei first appeared:-
1984 …… 10,196 ……
1985 …… 11,993 …… 17.6%
1986 …… 13,024 …… 8.6%
1987 …… 20,048 …… 53.9%
1988 …… 23,622 …… 17.8%
1989 …… 31,581 …… 33.7%
1990 …… 37,189 …… 17.8%
1991 …… 23,293 …… -37.4%
1992 …… 22,023 …… -5.5%
1993 …… 17,024 …… -22.7%
1994 …… 20,229 …… 18.8%
1995 …… 18,650 …… -7.8%
1996 …… 20,813 …… 11.6%
1997 …… 18,330 …… -11.9%
1998 …… 16,628 …… -9.3%
1999 …… 14,499 …… -12.8%
2000 …… 19,540 …… 34.8%
2001 …… 13,844 …… -29.2%
2002 …… 9,998 …… -27.8%
2003 …… 8,340 …… -16.6%
2004 …… 10,784 …… 29.3%
2005 …… 11,388 …… 5.6%
2006 …… 16,650 …… 46.2%
2007 …… 17,383 …… 4.4%
2008 ……… 13 ,592
2009 ……… 7 ,999
2010 ……… 10 ,198
2011 ……… 10 ,346
The Nikkei is Japan stock market indice. The Nikkei down ward trend is a reflection of Japanese economic stagnation for the last two decades.
We know the Iphone exclusivity has kept AT&T in wireless business. With the Iphone exclusivity set to end anytime in 2011 investors have a reason to be concerned with AT&T stock.
If you believe the loss of Iphone exclusivity will have a negative impact on AT&T, with subscribers jumping over to Verizon or slowing subscriber growth then you can profit from the loss by shorting AT&T stock.Talk to your broker about the possibility of shorting AT&T stock.
What AT&T Thinks?
According to AT& T filing with SEC, “We do not expect any such terminations to have a material negative impact on our wireless segment income, consolidated operating margin or our cash from operations,” AT&T said
AT&T said more than 80% of its contract customers are on family or business plans that are less likely to see turnover.
What Business analyst are Saying,
Some surveys are telling us as many as 23% of AT&T users are likely to switch to Verizon when the Iphone goes to Verizon.
It’s hard to predict the impact of the loss of Iphone exlusivity, any position an investor takes on AT&T stock now will be speculative.
Monte Carlo methods are used in finance and mathematical finance to value and analyze (complex) instruments, portfolios and investments by simulating the various sources of uncertainty affecting their value, and then determining their average value over the range of resultant outcomes
Monte Carlo Methods are used for personal financial planning. For instance, by simulating the overall market, the chances of a 401(k) allowing for retirement on a target income can be calculated. As appropriate, the worker in question can then take greater risks with the retirement portfolio or start saving more money.
The following video makes a demonstration of Monte Carlo Simulation: -
We all know Apple shares are the hottest shares on wallstreet. In two years the stock as raced from $80 to the current $ 270s. The rally has been driven by the success of the Iphone and now the Ipad. So, what could go wrong? What could spoil the party of the decade?
According to an article on barron online. The writer raises some red flags on apple stock , he quotes analysis by Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi.
If you are considering investing in apple stock, the following is a list of five concerns and potential pitfalls for Apple stock or Apple shares.
Apple’s market cap is too large for it to outperform, and its image has migrated from underdog to Silicon Valley bully, which will increasingly pit competitors against it. He notes that both Microsoft and Cisco went on to under-perform the market when their shares hit the top of the Nasdaq market cap list. Another issue: Apple’s size means that it can no longer fly under the radar against its competitors, and there is increased risk that competitors will increasingly look to cooperate with each other and potentially undermine Apple.
Increased regulatory scrutiny threatens to undermine Apple’s powerful iOS ecosystem. He notes that Apple has begun attract the attention of regulators, “with the most potentially damaging investigation being the FTC examining Apple’s requirement that developers only use Apple’s tools when writing apps for its iOS platform.” He writes that Apple’s relatively modest market share makes it tough to argue that Apple has dominant market power, but that “were regulators to define the market differently, they could hypothetically contest that Apple enjoys 70%-plus share of mobile device app downloads.”
Sustained growth in iPhones will inevitably lead to margin pressure. “Given Apple’s relatively strong market share at existing partners, investors have expressed concern over the company’s ability maintain growth without lowering price to attract new customers, which would negatively affect gross margins,” he writes. Sacconaghi, notes, though, that the company increase its addressable market by 60% by adding the 13 largest global carriers that don’t already offer the phone.
Near-term expectations for iPhone and iPad units are getting heady, risking disappointment. For iPads, he says, the question is whether the initial success is a temporary distortion due to out-sized and unsustainable enthusiasm among Apple fans. For the iPhone, he notes, a good portion of recent unit growth has been driven by expanded carrier distribution; he says a risks exists that if the company is slow to add more carriers, unit sales could fall short of estimates.
Apple’s insistence on retaining cash points to a risk of the company squandering it on a flawed acquisition. The company has $41.7 billion in cash, about 17% of its market cap. It has the largest cash balance of any company in the S&P (ex financials). He contends that some investors think there is a risk the company one day make a value-destroying acquisition; he notes that the company’s acquisition history is limited.