Jul 11

I was watching Jim Roger interview on CNBC, and the famed commodity investor disclosed where he is putting his money.

Jim Rogers Long Positions

Jim Rogers is long commodities and long US dollar

Jim Rogers short positions

Jim Rogers is short long dated US treasuries, short emerging markets, short US technology and short one major US bank.

Watch the whole interview at CNBC.

written by Constantine Njeru \\ tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Jun 28

There is a strong case for a higher corn prices in 2011. Heavy rain and flooding across the US will affect this years crop. Cargill, the world’s largest agricultural commodities trader, estimates that about 2.5m acres of corn have been lost. A decline in production can only mean more upward pressure on corn prices. Source FT Commodities News.

Even before the US flood corn prices were under upward pressure from the following factors.

  1. Surging demand from emerging markets,
  2. Rising consumption of the grain by the ethanol industry.
  3. Rising global population in key consuming nations in Africa and Asia
  4. droughts in other key producing regions.

written by Constantine Njeru \\ tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Mar 16

Marc Faber is an investment analyst, he is best known for the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter. The newsletter publishes Marc Faber investment advice and investment tips. Faber has been nick named ‘Doctor Doom’

Marc Faber Track Record

His market advice since 2000 is quite accurate.Faber predicted the rise of oil, precious metals, other commodities, emerging markets and especially China in his book Tomorrow’s Gold: Asia’s Age of Discovery. He also correctly predicted the slide of the U.S. dollar since 2002 and the 5/06 and 2/07 mini-corrections.

Marc Faber Investment Advice & Investment Tips

  1. Don’t confuse luck with insight – Faber is famous for advising his clients to get out of the stock market one week before the October 1987 crash. However Faber said that this prediction was “accidental”.
  2. Market Timing is very difficult
  3. There is no value in US bonds – His current tag-line is: ‘buy a $100 US bond and frame it to teach your children about inflation by watching the US bond value diminish to almost nothing over the next 20 years.
  4. Buy gold and other metals – He has said that investors should consider holding part of their wealth in the form of precious metals “because they can be carried”.
  5. Faber believes there are few value investments available, except for farmland and real estate in some emerging markets like Russia, Paraguay, and Uruguay

written by Constantine Njeru \\ tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Feb 03

All indications are we will continue to see higher food commodities prices in 2011.

The consensus from Global Commodities Forum 2011 in Geneva (a meeting of commodity traders and senior officials) is prices point north.

Five factors driving food commodities prices in 2011

Poor weather - Poor weather in form of la nina and el nino continue to affect parts of Latin America, Africa and Australia. This is constraining supply.

Speculation - This time it is not just traders who are speculating, countries and buying and hoarding.

Geopolitical risks - Political crisis in places such as Ivory Coast will continue to impact on supply.

Rise of China & Other emerging Markets – As this countries economies expand, they have become major buyers pushing demand high.

2011 Global Economic Growth -  Growth is good but it is a double edged sword. As global economic growth accelerates in 2011, demand for commodities will push prices higher still.

All indications are we will see new highs in Cocoa, Coffee, tea, wheat, soyabeans, rice & corn

written by Constantine Njeru \\ tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nov 12

According to some analyst, a barrel of oil could top $100 in 2011. A businessweek /bloomberg article gives some compelling arguments.

Four Reasons Why the black gold will hit $100 in 2011.

  1. The continued falling dollar, there is a link between the dollar and oil. They move in opposite directions. as Dollar goes down, the price of oil goes up.
  2. The US Fed Bank continues printing dollars. The past few years have shown that the more cheap money in the system, the more money flows into commodities, in particular energy.
  3. The OPEC will continue protecting their cash cow. The cartel members may seek a higher price by as the depreciation of the greenback erodes the profitability of their dollar-denominated oil export.
  4. Growth in Emerging markets means demand for oil will remain strong going forward.

written by Constantine Njeru \\ tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 15

Its never easy for a small investor to invest in Gold. There are practical problems with owning gold. It’s heavy, and not easy for the average investor to buy, sell, ship, and store. Gold involves a lot of transactional costs.

Invest in Gold ETF

One easier way for retail investors or small investor can get exposure to gold is through exchange-traded funds. The exchange traded fund is a trading platform where investors can invest in funds that track a particular investment eg. gold, oil, emerging markets etc. Instead of directly buying a commodity, you buy piece of the fund which in turns invests directly into the commodity.

For example, the SPDR Gold Trust holds actual gold bullion. The PowerShares DB Gold Fund holds futures contracts linked to the price of gold, and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF holds stock in gold mining companies.

written by Constantine Njeru \\ tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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