Nov 28

2009 has to be the year of commodities. If you are a follower of trend following you must have made lots of cash by trend of gold, Silver & Platinum.

Look at this 2009 Price trends of this metals

2009 Gold Price Trend – up 34%

2009 Silver price trend – up 63%

2009 Platinum price trend – up 56%

2009 Palladium price trend – up an impressive 98%

If your mind was focused on the falling prices of real estate & non-starter stock market recoveries, you might have missed this commodities bull.

Should investors jump in? No! I don’t think just because this metal commodities have done well in the past they will continue doing well.

Strategy for making money in Metal commodities.

Whatever goes up, eventually comes down, one strategy is to focus on shorting the metals or sell the futures contract.

Strategy two, only for the seasoned pro, if you know how to play the speculation game keep buying the futures contract.

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Nov 24

Warren Buffet is a contrarian investor. So who is a contrarian investor? This article explains / defines a contrarian investor?

Contrarian Investor Explanation from Warren Buffet.

A great way to make money is to go against the crowd. “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful,” Buffett explained in a 1986 letter to shareholders.

To put it simply a contrarian investor is an investor who goes against the popular direction. When the majority are buying into an investment he is busy selling, when the majority are selling he is buying.

So, how does a contrarian investor make money.

When the stock market is unpopular like during a bear market, the value of stocks tend to decline and most investors are selling. This is the time a contrarian investor invests, buyin cheap stocks. When the bull market returns and stocks are popular and everyone is getting in, the demand for stocks pushes stock values higher and higher and this the time a contrarian investor start selling the shares he had bought when everyone was selling.

To make money as a contrarian investor you must have a good timing of the market, be it stock market, bond market, futures market, commodity market and even real estate. You must understand markets work in cycles of bear market and bull market; markets go up and down. Buy during the bear market and sell during the bull market.

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Nov 05

The common wisdom was that the stock market mirrored the economy. If the economy is on an upswing the stock market went up.

But looking at US data, a strange thing is happening. The buoyant S&P 500 has risen 53 percent since the March bottom while the economy  has remained flat.

An article in slate.com explains this anomaly.

For much of the past two years, virtually all growth in economic activity has taken place outside America’s borders. As a result, U.S.-based companies are becoming even more reliant on non-U.S. customers and operations for sales.

Globalization is changing the way we do business. It’s not a matter of U.S. companies exporting goods—burgers, soda, cars, software—made in the United States to Beijing but rather, making goods overseas and selling them overseas.

The US economy might be flat but the rest of the world economy is growing fueling growth for American companies with overseas subsidiaries. That explains why American companies may report higher profits despite the US economy slowing

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Jul 28

I just got got the following email in my in-box attacking the idea stock market deliver? big returns in the long term. It describes how investors end up losing money in the long term.

1997 – Child received $5,000.00 from grandmother’s estate. Invested with  Investment Co. 1

2000 – $5,000 investment at $4200.00 – Taken from Investment Co 1 and put with Investment Co 2

2003 – $5,000 is now $3,000.00.

Taken from Investment Co 2, child’s parents added $2,000 to bring same up to $5,000.00.Given to Investment Co 3 (after being advised about the strategy of dollar averaging)

2009 – $5,000.00 Investment is now 12 years old. Worth $5300.00.

Most of us can’t get our heads around six and seven figures but all of us can see what happened to this $5,000.00. Shows what fools we’ve been to believe the blather from the “stocks are great”, crowd. The only people who made money on this kid’s investment were the Bernie Madoff’s etc who charged the child and his parents for “investing” for them. The family would have been better off putting the money in a tin can in the dog house.

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